Weather Tidbits: The Forecast Cone of Uncertainty

We’ll be discussing the National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone of uncertainty in this edition of Weather Tidbits. The cone of uncertainty represents the probable track of a tropical cyclone’s center. The size of the cone is based on how good or bad the forecasts have been over the past 5 years. When analyzing the cone, do not use it to access the risk of strong winds, storm surge, heavy rain, or tornadoes. The cone only represents where the center of the storm may go. Storm impacts often occur well outside the storm center and thus the cone. It is a useful tool to monitor the progress of a tropical cyclone, like a hurricane. But when staying ahead of what potential impacts and hazards may be with the approaching storm, it is important to consider other forecast graphics to assess various risks.