November Ends Warm; What About December?

Happy December everyone! It’s officially the start to Meteorological winter, meaning temperatures should start to trend colder and the chances for snow should technically rise. But that may not be the case this month.

The stats are in for November and it was a mild one. The average daily temperature ended up being 51.8 degrees, which is 3.6 degrees above average for the month. There were 6 days with temperatures at or above 70. 

Looking at the long range pattern, it seems that December will continue this trend, at least for the first couple of weeks. There are no signs of any real arctic outbreaks. Temperatures will start above average for the first couple days of December, but then trend more towards average (low 50s) from December 3-6, then another warm up is expected. Overall, a milder than normal December is expected unless we can get a big arctic outbreak at the end of the month.

Attached is the Climate Prediction Centers (CPC) temperature outlook for the next 8-14 days, and it puts Delmarva in the above average category, in fact the entire U.S. has a good chance at above normal temperatures.

This is exactly what was expected for the first part of the cold season. We are still expecting a trend to more winter like weather as we head into 2016 with winter possibly lasting into March. So far, this is the classic warm November and warm December El Nino pattern. Conditions look to remain wetter than normal as well.