NOAA & Colorado State University update their hurricane outlooks as the season peak nears
This hurricane season has been much quieter this year compared to the last 2 years at this time with only 3 storms formed so far; but don’t be fooled, the peak of hurricane season is quickly approaching.
Both NOAA and Colorado State University updated their hurricane outlooks for the rest of the hurricane season on Thursday morning. Both organizations are still forecasting for an above average hurricane season but have decreased their forecasted totals from earlier this season. NOAA updated their named storms forecast from 14-21 in May to 14-20 storms today; while the amount of hurricanes and major hurricanes remained unchanged of 6-10 and 3-5 respectively . Colorado State University had a decrease in all 3 categories with 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes; which is down 2 named storms and hurricanes along with one major hurricane from their July outlook.
A major reason for the above average hurricane season is due to La Niña sticking around for a 3rd straight year; which favors hurricane development through less wind shear. Other reasons for an another active season include above average water temperatures in the Atlantic, weaker trade winds in the Atlantic and an active west African monsoon.
Hurricane season begins to heat up throughout August; as warmer Atlantic waters branches out with tracks as far east as Africa. The area with highest development is over the eastern Greater & northern Lesser Antilles; but areas of likely development include the Gulf Coast & the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S.. September is the peak of hurricane season; specifically the 10th of the month. Areas of most development consist of the eastern Greater & northern Antilles but also the Gulf of Mexico & northwestern Caribbean Sea; with Cape Verde storms from Africa continuing to march from the east as well. The concentration of storm development decreases in October from the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Florida and off the coast of the Southeast; concluding the active months, as the Atlantic waters start to cool.