Weather Tidbits: Hurricane Climatology III
This Weather Tidbits discusses the climatology of tropical systems during the final months of hurricane season in October and November. Cooler waters and wind shear increase in the Atlantic during October; shifting the paths and development areas towards the Gulf, Caribbean and the United States. South Florida is most likely to be caught with a hurricane in October. During this month, cold fronts with strong troughs bringing cool Canadian autumn air tend to steer storms northeasterly. This creates a more likely focus over the Southeast with tracks either hovering the Eastern Seaboard up to New England or storms off the Carolinas approaching towards the Canadian Maritimes or Newfoundland.
The concentration of development in November heavily shrinks just to the Caribbean, Cuba and the Bahamas. The steering mechanism from October continues with troughs and cold fronts from up north and west drive storms to the northeast.
Remember this is an average from storms over the last century or so, so keep in mind, that tropical storms and hurricanes can develop at any time or any where, as we have seen with development during the pre-season in May or even the post-season in December.