Potential Winter Weather this Weekend

Social Media is going crazy over the potential for a winter storm this upcoming weekend. Let’s take a look at the possibilities.

Models began picking up on this several days ago, but now that we’re within 5-6 days away it’s a good time to start talking about it. As with any storm modeled this far out, alot can still change and it likely will. Right now, two of the major forecast models (GFS and EURO) we use are showing this storm, plus a few others as well.

The most recent run of the GFS model is advertising a stronger and more organized system with a more northern track. It brings accumulating snow (several inches) to Delmarva with some mixing of rain and sleet too, especially at the coast. But the path has changed several times with this model, sometimes showing heavy snow across Delmarva and sometimes showing rain.

The European model has been more consistent in showing a weaker and more southern path, which keeps colder air around longer. This would bring mostly all snow to Delmarva, but not a lot (maybe an inch or so).

DETAILS
TIMEFRAME: Saturday PM – Sunday
HAZARD: Snow, Sleet, & Rain
IMPACTS: Heavy snow and/or sleet or rain, coastal flooding, breezy winds.

STORM PROBABILITIES
40% Chance of accumulating snow (1 inch+)
40% Chance of mostly rain
20% Chance of total miss

Both models are predicting a strong high pressure over New England ahead of the storm which means cold air will be around. But the models differ on the exact path and strength of the storm. A lesson I have learned in the past is to never lock in on a forecast more than two to three days out because winter weather patterns are very complex and a lot can change in a short period of time, so be sure to stay tuned to the 47 ABC Storm Team for the latest forecast.

Categories: Weather Blog