Forecasters now saying 55-60% of ENSO-neutral conditions

Models predicted cool Niño-3.4 conditions during the months of July and August but actual observations show that the sea surface temperatures (SST) did not get as cold as predicted.

The graph above shows past and current forecast for the Niño-3.4 region, created by Michelle L’Heureux. The black line shows what was actually observed from January 2015 to August 2016. The purple lines in the graph show the forecast from 9 different models, and the grey lines show what previous models were predicting.

Forecasters are now leaning more towards a 50-60% chance for ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning we’re no longer in an El Nino phase and they don’t believe we will go into a La Nina phase, as previously expected. The reason they are now forecasting this is because the most recent models are now trending towards a neural phase and the previous models were colder than what was actually observed the last two months.