What scientists learned about Hurricane Irene

According to a study by Professor Scott Glenn, water temperatures ahead of the eye of Hurricane Irene cooled significantly before making landfall.

Hurricane Irene made landfall in 2011 and had a path starting in North Carolina and ending in Massachusetts. It has been classified as the eighth costliest hurricane to impact the United States in more than 100 years, with a cost in damages of $16 billion and resulting in 50 deaths. Although preparing and forecasting for hurricanes has improved, Hurricane Irene and others show us that there is still so much more to learn.

The study explains that the eye created circulation resistance that limits storm surge which in turn causes shearing. This then causes deep cold water to come up and mix with the warm surface water. Since warm surface water plays a key factor in keeping the hurricane going,the water turning significantly cooler, caused the storm to weaken.

There was enough time to evacuate coastal areas before the hurricane made landfall but since forecasters did not account for the cooling of the water, wind speeds were overestimates. This might sound like a good thing, but this led to neglected preparation for inland flooding from heavy rainfall.

The research also looked into hurricanes in the past 30 years, showing the same result from cooling water ahead of the eye. The study emphasis the importance of this find in order to better forecast models by using realistic coastal baroclinic processes.

This report was led by Rutgers’ University, collaborated with the National Weather Service and National Ocean Service, and funded by the Climate Observation Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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