75% Chance of a Transition into La Niña

NOAA scientists are now saying there is a 75% chance that there will be a transition into La Niña this fall.

Currently, we are still under an El Niño phase but we are expected to quickly transition into a neutral phase and then into La Niña. This means that sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central Pacific will be at least 0.5 degrees below average.

The latest numbers show that in April, SST were  1.2ºC above average, which is a big drop from the peak of El Niño in November of 2.4 degrees above average.  Recently, cooling has accelerated and models are trending towards El Niño ending at the beginning of the summer.

What does this mean? As previously mentioned, during a La Niña, the Atlantic has the possibility of seeing more hurricanes due to weaker vertical wind shear. As for impacts such as cooler, warmer, drier, or wetter conditions as we hear with El Niño will not come into play throughout the summer in United States.

Throughout the months on June through August, La Niña has limited impacts to the northern hemisphere weather. Most of the changes will occur throughout the fall and will impact our winter season. Typically between December and February, Delmarva falls right in between a wetter winter and a warm/dry winter.