NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2017 Hurricane Season

Scientists at NOAA released their 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook today. Hurricane season in the Atlantic officially runs from June 1 through November 30, although tropical systems can form at any time of year.

Forecasters are predicting an above-average number of tropical systems. One of the main factors scientists are using to predict this hurricane season is whether or not we will be in a strong El Nino or La Nina pattern. El Nino and La Nina are the warm and cool phases in a climate pattern that spreads across the tropical latitudes of the Pacific Ocean. Forecasters are expecting a weak El Nino, which typically yields an above average number of storms

Other factors involved in the prediction include sea-surface temperatures and vertical wind shear. Warmer ocean temperatures are better fuel for tropical cyclones, and it is predicted that sea-surface temperatures will be around average. Vertical wind shear is defined as strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that can tear apart storms. So, the prediction of weaker-than-average vertical wind shear promotes the potential for more tropical systems.

With this information in mind, forecasters are predicting 11-17 named storms in the Atlantic this year. Out of these, 5-9 are expected to be hurricanes. They are also predicting 2-7 major hurricanes, meaning a storm at Category 3 strength or higher. On average, the Atlantic basin typically sees 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. 

NOAA has also released the list of names for storms in the 2017 season. This list is as follows: