Phil saw his shadow, but will the final 6 weeks of winter live up to the hype?

Punxsutawney Phil, the legendary weather-forecasting groundhog from Punxsutawney, PA, saw his shadow Sunday morning, thus proclaiming 6 more weeks of winter instead of an early spring. Here on Delmarva, we may end up with a little bit of both.

The celebration of the famed groundhog got its start as a Pennsylvania German custom in the 18th and 19th centuries, mainly in the southeastern and central part of the state. However, the holiday has roots from ancient times in Europe, where a badger or bear was the symbolic forecasting animal.

In modern times, the National Weather Service says Phil will see his shadow more often than not. And Phil’s predictions have been a little off the past decade, clocking in at only 30% correct. But last year he didn’t see his shadow, and he was right about an early spring!

After a snowy and frigid January, a weak La Nina in the Pacific (cooling of east-central equatorial waters) has evolved, influencing a more “zonal” west-to-east pattern with the jet stream in the eastern US. Arctic air has stayed locked up in northern Canada with a stronger polar vortex and near to above average temperatures have been more of the rule lately on Delmarva.

The latest monthly temperature outlook calls for above-average temperatures on Delmarva and for much of the Mid-Atlantic for February. But as we know, it only takes a single arctic blast of air to set us up for a snow event. Even if the month averages out to be milder than normal, this doesn’t mean we won’t have cold snaps.

In fact, the first half of February may be the mildest part of the month. Signs are pointing towards a shift back towards a colder outlook for the middle or end of the month, potentially into early March. Despite a weak La Nina, several other teleconnections like negative Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillations and a weakening Polar Vortex (spilt) may induce dumping of polar air into the eastern third of the US. Whether or not this will line up for a snow event is unknown. But if the cold returns later this month, Phil’s prediction of winter riding out its time on the calendar may indeed be correct in the long run.