Annual report shows some of the lowest blue crab numbers in decades, officials say

MARYLAND – An analysis by the Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee shows that the Bay’s blue crab population is not overfished but is at its lowest in decades.

We’re told the report shows that the population is not overfished based on current biological reference points, however, it notes that adult and juvenile numbers are near their lowest levels in recent years.

The Committee is recommending that the jurisdictions that manage fishing for blue crabs in the Bay continue conserving female and juvenile crabs to ensure a healthy future for the population and to maintain measures to protect males as well.

This annual advisory report includes analysis of data from the 2024-25 Winter Dredge Survey, which estimates the blue crab population in the Bay. This year’s survey estimated the following:

• The overall blue crab population in early 2025 was 238 million, down from last year’s 317 million, marking the second lowest population since the survey began in 1990
• There were 103 million juvenile blue crabs in 2025, down from last year’s 138 millions and the third lowest population since 1990
• The female population was 108 million, down from 113 million in 2024
• The male population was 26 million, down from 46 million last year and the lowest since 1990

The Committee says that conservation measures should be considered if the male harvest rate exceeds 34%. In 2024, the male harvest rate was 30%. The report does not identify overharvesting as the reason the blue crab population dropped in 2025.

The Winter Dredge Survey also explores how many blue crabs die every winter due to cold water temperatures and low salinity. In 2025, the overwintering mortality was 4%, which officials say is higher than in recent years but still below the 1996-2025 average of 5.98%.

Researchers are continuing to investigate the reasons behind the low abundance and recruitment, including habitat availability, predation, environmental conditions, and oceanic conditions.

“This year’s survey results are one piece of a broader conversation,” said Jamie Green, commissioner of the Virginia Marine Resources Commission. “Our adaptive management approach is designed to account for natural variability in the population, ensuring that we don’t overreact to short-term fluctuations. Virginia remains committed to tracking outcomes over time and working closely with our partners across the region. Sound management depends on patience, collaboration and a clear-eyed view of the data, principles we will continue to uphold to support both the resource and the livelihoods that depend on it.”