Weather Tidbits: Describing Long Range Forecasting With Plinko

This edition of Weather Tidbits compares long range forecasting to the game Plinko. Plinko is a game of many paths and possibilities, which is similar to long range forecasting. There are many paths for the forecast to take, but each step depends on the path beforehand. Despite all the possibilities, a forecast model only puts out one solution. One small deviation can make a big difference in the final output. The range of possibilities is greatest the further away from an end date you are, meaning there is more room for error. You may use ensemble weather models rather than single operational models for longer range forecasting to get a better sense of the range of possibilities. The closer to the final day, the fewer possible paths there are. This results in a more accurate forecast. Similar to Plinko, the closer the ball is to the bottom, the fewer paths there are to take to the final destination.