NOAA updates Atlantic hurricane season forecast, expects above-normal activity

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated their 2023 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, now expecting an above-normal amount of tropical activity.  The forecast update reflects record warm sea temperatures across the Atlantic that will likely mute the effects of an ongoing El-Nino, a climate pattern of warming Pacific ocean waters that disrupts weather patterns globally, limiting the development of tropical systems.

The early season forecast called for 12-17 named storms. The updated forecast now projects 14-21 total storms (including 5 that have already occurred).

Below-normal levels of wind shear (which limits cloud and thunderstorm growth within a tropical system) and an increase of the West African Monsoon are 2 other factors that are expected to promote tropical system development for the remainder of the hurricane season.

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to a quick start with five named storms, one of which became a hurricane. Since then, the Atlantic basin has been quiet for a good chunk of the summer. However, the lull in activity is not unusual. Tropical activity typically ramps up later in August, peaking in September. The tropics can remain active well into the fall season, with activity still possible as late as November.

The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1st and runs through November 30th.