NOAA Updates 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

On August 4th, NOAA released their updated 2021 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It states that there is a 65% chance for an above-normal season, a 25% chance for a near normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season.

They increased their original forecast of 13-20 named storms to 15-21 named storms. Plus, they increased the number of those storms that will strengthen into hurricanes from 6-10 to 7-10. They kept the range the same for major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) at 3-5. They are forecasting an above normal season as the average number of named storms is 14, hurricanes is 7 and those that become major hurricanes is 3. It should be noted that their updated forecast does include the 5 named storms we have already had, which includes Hurricane Elsa, the earliest 5th named storm on record.

Researchers stated that an increase in seasonal hurricane activity can be attributed to the potential for La Niña conditions to return within the coming months, reduced vertical wind shear and an enhanced west Africa monsoon. To review the impacts La Niña has on the Atlantic hurricane season,  La Niña conditions favor light trade winds and reduced vertical wind shear. Also, the atmosphere is more unstable over the Atlantic Ocean during La Niña. This allows tropical systems to form easily as there aren’t winds to inhibit formation or weaken these systems. For now, we are under a La Niña Watch, which means over the next 6 months conditions are favorable for the formation of La Niña conditions.

Currently there are two systems in the Atlantic that forecasters are watching. There is a westward moving tropical wave over Africa that has a medium chance of development over the next 5 days. And a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic that has a low chance of development over the next 5 days.

The next name on the list is Fred.

Stay weather aware with the 47 ABC Storm Team this hurricane season.