Weather Tidbits: Trend Forecasting
The topic of trend forecasting is explored on this Weather Tidbits. A trend or steady-state forecast assumes that systems will move in the same direction & approximately same speed, based on past movements. A trend forecast used for a few hours is called “nowcasting”, which is frequently used for precipitation. The trend forecast works well when systems move at the same speed & direction for a long time. However, the method will fail; if the system changes speed, intensity & direction.