Economic experts predict an “uneven recovery”

DELAWARE — The State Chamber of Commerce and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia are predicting an uneven economic recovery.

During a statewide discussion on Tuesday, they said manufacturing should come back quickly but the travel and hospitality industry will likely feel the impacts longer. They say the major decrease in consumer spending has hit the economy the hardest. In March, there was a 7.5 percent decrease in consumer spending with experts predicting April to be worse. They say those spending patterns were seen in Delaware even before the state started closing things and they predict that trend will continue until we’re able to control the spread of the virus.

“The point is this: Until the virus itself is under control, even as more states gradually open up, we can expect the economy to underperform relative to where it was just a couple of months ago,” says Patrick T. Harker, the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

“Job losses in Delaware have been heavily concentrated in accommodations and food services, though there has also been a slight decline in manufacturing employment. Banking and finance jobs, crucial in Delaware, have held up fairly well – in stark contrast to the last recession, which began, after all, with a financial crisis.”

Experts also spoke about two possible economic scenarios. In one of the best cases, we have technology to contain the spread of the virus and there’s no second wave in the fall. But they say one of worst case scenarios is we open too quickly and see a significant second wave of the virus which they say would reverse the economic recovery.