Expert discusses future sea level rise impact on bay communities

CRISFIELD, Md. – For years, residents in Smith Island, Tangier Island and Crisfield have listened to scientists discuss rising sea levels and the threat it poses to their communities.  But a discussion held in Crisfield on Saturday looked at that threat from a different perspective.  That the threat may not be as imminent as many might believe.

“We see more high tides, but they’re no higher than ever. But what we do see is wind changes and wind really effects our tides,” said Eddie Somers, president of Smith Island United.

Organizers tell us this is not a debate on climate change, rather it’s a discussion, led by a person who has spent 25 years doing coastline research on the Chesapeake.

“I’m showing you the data that says, sea level is rising, no doubt. But the magnitude of rise is different,” said Dr. Darrin Lowery, director of the Chesapeake Watershed Archaeological Research.  “I just question the magnitude.  In other words the magnitude for the last century have said a foot, in the upper end of the bay to a foot and a half in the lower end of the bay, in the last century.”

Dr. Lowery tells 47ABC because these communities are on a mostly enclosed bay, and not an open ocean, it is much more difficult to evaluate how much, and how quickly water will rise.

“You’ve got sedimentation, you’ve got erosion that has increased sedimentation in the bay, it will change the tidal amplitude and could skew your perception of tides over time,” said Lowery.

One side effect of discussion over sea level rise is the impact it has on these communities.  Locals tell us they just want more accurate, detailed interpretations of what to expect in the future.

“It’s just about some of the predictions that are projected that are really harmful to a lot of the lower eastern shore waterfront communities,” said Somers.

Dr. Lowery listed variables scientists must consider moving forward such as wind direction, tidal flow and accretion of sediment.