2016 Hurricane Forecast
We’re a few days into the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 through November 30th) and we’ve already had two named storms, Alex and Bonnie. So what can we expect as we head through the summer and into the fall? The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issues their forecast for this season and it looks to be fairly average. The NHC expects 10-14 named storms, 4-8 will reach hurricane status, and 1-4 will be major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). This is on par with the average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. While it may be a normal year, we would see more activity because the last few years have been below average.
El Nino played a role in a slower season in 2015, where we had 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. El Nino adds in extra wind shear across the Atlantic Basin which helps to discourage tropical storm development. As we head through the summer El Nino will return to a neutral phase and even dip to become La Nina. La Nina is expected to become more prominent in the Fall, which could aid in tropical storm growth at the end of the season.
