Major changes on campaign trail: what’s ahead?
Major changes on the presidential campaign trail this week, with Ohio Governor John Kasich officially announcing the suspension of his campaign on Wednesday.
Donald Trump’s big win in Indiana’s republican primaries Tuesday prompted Texas Senator Ted Cruz to bow out of the race as soon as the contest was called.
Among the Democrats, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders won in Indiana on Tuesday vowing the race wasn’t over and pledging that he will defeat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
“I think we can pull off one of the great political upsets in the history of the United States and in fact, become the nominee for the democratic party,” Says Senator Sanders.
Even with the Hoosier State victory, catching up with Clinton is a tall order in terms of delegate math for Sanders.
Dr. Michael O’Loughlin, a professor of Political Science at Salisbury University, says it’s not impossible for Sanders who currently trails Clinton in delegates.
The problem moving forward, according to Dr. O’Loughlin, is that democratic primaries are set up to be proportional. Unlike some Republican primaries, they [democratic primaries] are not winner-take-all.
“Even in Indiana, where Sanders wins, he doesn’t take all of the delegates,” Explains Dr. O’Loughlin. “Clinton got a good percentage of the vote and therefore, she got a set of delegates as well.”
While Sanders admits the path forward is narrow, it appears Clinton has turned her attention to Donald Trump, her presumptive opponent in the general election if she is the Democratic nominee.
“We cannot allow ourselves to be divided against one another, to be set against one another, to have scapegoating and shaming and blaming and insulting,” Clinton told the crowd on Tuesday.
Even with both Kasich and Cruz suspending their campaigns, Trump will still face stiff competition this fall, according to Dr. O’Loughlin. He says this is because of how demographics may play out.
Dr. O’Loughlin says recent voter demographics may favor a democratic candidate, whether that be Clinton or Sanders.
The Pew Research Center predicts this election to be the most diverse in U.S. history, largely due to strong growth among Hispanic eligible voters.
O’Loughlin also notes a recent poll found that 73-percent of female voters have an unfavorable view of Trump.
“This time around, again Trump has insulted women generally, speaking,” He says. “It’s likely that vote will tilt even more in the favor of the democrat so in that respect, either Sanders or Clinton is going to be the odds on favorite to win the election.”
According to a new CNN/ORC poll, Clinton now leads Trump 54 to 41 percent in support. That 13 point edge is Clinton’s largest lead since July 2015.
