Major El Nino Expected to Develop
A developing very strong El Nino is expected to continue over the next several months and continue into the winter. So what does this mean and what is El Nino?
El Nino is defined as the warming of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST’s) off of the coast of South America, which you can see occurring now in the image above. This warming has large implications on the earths weather patterns, especially during the fall and winter months. As SST’s warm up, the southern jet stream strengthens. The southern jet stream typically crashes into the coast of California bringing record rainfall. The Pacific Northwest is typically dry while the Southeast U.S is wet. The Northern Plains and Midwest are warm and most of the cold air remains bottled up across Canada. Delmarva is a toss up because it really depends on how strong the Nino is.
Last winter was a weak El Nino and current forecast models continue to strengthen the current El Nino into what could likely be the strongest El Nino ever recorded. The strongest El Nino to date was in 1997/1998, and if forecasts are correct, this year will be even stronger. Some are even calling it a super El Nino event. Below is a look at current forecasts for the El Nino which show it rising above the 1997 levels and lasting through winter before eventually weakening.
El Nino’s also impact the summer hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific. The strong southern jet stream typically destroys any tropical system that attempts to develop in the Atlantic. That’s one reason why this hurricane season is expected to be a quiet one. On the other hand, the Pacific typically sees an active hurricane season, which is exactly what’s occurring now.
Of course, not all El Nino’s behave the same and some can be quite different, especially here on Delmarva. Last winter was a weak El Nino and it was cold and snowy. This upcoming winter is expected to be a strong El Nino. The last time an El Nino was that strong in winter was in 1997/1998 and it was a mild and snow-less winter on Delmarva. The stronger the Nino, the greater chance for warmer air to work its way into the area. So, if the El Nino does what it’s supposed to do, the upcoming winter may not be as snowy, BUT there are other factors that must be looked at before determining that forecast, because not all Nino’s are the same. Right now it’s too early to do that and I’ll have updates through the rest of the summer season and upcoming fall season.
