With temperatures reaching 70 degrees in some spots on Tuesday, it’s hard to imagine that we could be talking about snow for the end of the week. A strong cold front pushed through the area last night, dropping our temperatures into the 40s. A low pressure system is expected to form off the coast Friday night, and depending on the location and strength of that low, portions of Delmarva could see some snow.
There are plenty of factors that will go into whether or not we will see our first measurable snow of the season. Some computer models are printing out up to 10 inches of snow, but a lot of things would have to line up perfectly for that to happen.
One major factor with this system is temperatures. We have been very mild the last few days, and high temperatures will remain above freezing for the next week, making it a bit more difficult for any snow to stick initially.
Another factor with this system is when precipitation starts and ends. It’s beginning to look more likely that precipitation won’t start until after dark on Friday. This means temperatures will be cooler and any rain or mix could transition to snow quicker. There is also some inconsistency on how long precipitation will last. This system is looking very unorganized, making it difficult to know how much energy will be present. The amount of energy will help dictate if we will see precipitation end Saturday morning or last through Saturday night.
There will also be a sharp cutoff as far as precipitation. Locations south and east of Salisbury have the greatest chance of seeing a prolonged period of precipitation. The further north and west you are, the more difficult it is to pinpoint who will see snow and who will just see snow showers or nothing at all.
The bottom line is that most of Delmarva will probably be seeing the first flakes of the season this weekend. It’s looking less likely that this system will be a total miss, but there are a lot of details that still need to be worked out.
Here are a few examples of different model outputs of snow totals showing the amount uncertainty with this system: