The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted our region as "an area of concern" for severe weather Tuesday of next week.
The ingredients seem to be coming together for a possible severe weather outbreak next week along the east coast. It's still early to give exact details, but long range computer models have been very consistent in bringing in a powerful cold front. This front will create an unusually big dip in the jet stream for the summer and also bring significantly cooler weather to parts of the Midwest and New England states. Fall-like weather will develop behind the front for those areas. Here's a piece of the SPC discussion regarding this potential event:
"DAY 6 /TUESDAY/ A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN STATES AS A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND PROFILES AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE."
The attached image shows the jet stream and how it dives south into the region. The black circle is the area under the concern for severe weather. When such a large scale trough pushes southward during the summer it usually clashes with very hot and humid air. The hot and humid air will already be in place across our area early next week. As this system interacts with the very moist and unstable air it will help add a lot of lift to the atmosphere, creating prime conditions for severe weather.
It's a bit unusual for our area to be placed in a severe risk this far out, so this could be a big deal next week. Things can still change, and over the next few days we will be able to narrow down the areas more likely to see bad weather. This is just a heads up that there's potential for damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and even tornadoes for our area. Please stay tuned...
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