As hurricane season begins tomorrow (June 1st), the tropics may already be up to no good. An area of energy currently in the eastern pacific has the potential to track into the gulf of mexico in the coming week. The conditions in these two areas are favorable to develop a rain maker at the very least. Both locations feature warm waters and weak upper atmosphere winds, which are two driving factors in developing a tropical system. The chance of any tropical development depends on the speed that the system in the eastern pacific is moving. The faster the system travels into the gulf of mexico, the chances of tropical development dwindle due to high wind shear. The slower the system travels, conditions will become more favorable for development over time.
Whether or not the timing of the system pans out in a way to see tropical development, heavy rain could be a factor across the gulf coast late next week. Of course, it's too early to tell if this will develop into an early season storm or remain a nuisance disturbance bringing rain to the gulf coast. If all plays out in favor of a developing storm, the first name on the list of Atlantic hurricane's is Arthur.
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